Projecting Lucroy's Rest of Season Stats.

In the past few weeks I have been working on putting together code to project "what if" scenarios using xStats. The first results of which you can find in Eno Saris' articles about Justin Bour and dejuicing the baseball. These both made use of the "what if the ball hadn't changed between 2015 and 2017?" what-if scenario. Which is interesting to talk about, but it isn't the only question I have to ask.

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A New Stat! bbFIP

A few weeks ago I began dabbling with a stat that combined extremely well hit balls and walks plus extremely poorly hit balls and strike outs. In other words, automatic successful at bats versus automatic failed at bats. The aim here is to blend the line between Defense Independent Pitching, which largely ignores BABIP, and the newer, more nuanced approach towards judging batted ball quality. 

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Dexter Fowler’s Added Power

Dexter Fowler has not had a great start to the season after signing an $82.5 million deal with the St. Louis Cardinals. He's batting .230/.323/.446 with a .328 wOBA and a 0.8 WAR a third of a way through the year, a far cry from the level of excellence he established during his time with the Cubs in 2015 and 2016.

But fear not my friends. Fowler has had a sluggish start to the year, I believe he might be hitting the ball better than ever.

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Zack Godley And His Fastball Are For Real

In the past, we’ve seen many pitchers have success as starters after stints as relievers. David Price, Chris Sale, Matt Shoemaker, and Danny Duffy to name a few. We are currently seeing a player have ease with that same transition. Arizona Diamondbacks righty Zack Godley.

Not a pitcher that will blow hitters away, Godley’s bread and butter is the movement on his pitches. A dropping sinker, a curveball with a lot of 12-6 movement, a cutter with depth, and changeup make up his repertoire.

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The Struggles of Johnny Cueto

Recently, San Francisco Giants $130 million dollar man, Johnny Cueto, had been reported to have blisters on his pitching hand. This had explained his recent struggles, which had been highlighted by a poor performance against the Chicago Cubs Tuesday night.

 Johnny Cueto has been no stranger to rough stretches too. After the Kansas City Royals had invested a lot in him during a World Series run by giving up three nice pitching prospects, he scuffled along the final months of the season, going 4-7 with a 4.76 ERA.

This didn’t scare away the San Francisco Giants though, as they gave him elite money during the 2015 offseason. Cueto was more than fine in 2016.

But 2017 has been a different story. The worries are back. Sure, it might be just a simple blister. Don’t tell Rich Hill that.

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How SunTrust Park May Impact Freddie Freeman

Yesterday The Hardball Times published my article about estimating the home run rate of SunTrust Park. You can read that article here. Today I will publish a snippet regarding Freddie Freeman which was left on the editing room floor.

You may be interested in reading another piece I wrote about Freeman on Rotographs, which sought to address a similar concern, albeit prior to finalizing the data for SunTrust Park.  I recommend reading both of these articles prior to reading this one.

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xStats and Fantasy Uses for Statcast

This is the most up to date article about xStats. It describes the current methodology and the descriptive and predictive qualities of the stats. It also delves into a quick and dirty method for adjusting the stats using a histogram of their exit velocities.

This article was featured on the Hardball Times on March 9th, 2017, and it is even John Sickels Approved. I consider it a must read for anyone even tangentially interested in xStats or Statcast in general.

Introducing xFantasy Parts I, II, III, and IV.

xFantasy is a system based on xStats that integrates hitters' xAVG, xOBP, and xISO in order to predict expected fantasy production (HR, R, RBI, SB, AVG). The underlying models are put together into an embedded "Triple Slash Converter" in Part 2. Part 3 compares the predictive value of xFantasy (and therefore xStats) vs. Steamer and historic stats, ultimately finding that for players under 26, xStats are indeed more predictive than Steamer.

First Published 12/22/16 Written by Ryan Brock

First Published 12/23/16 Written by Ryan Brock

First Published 1/21/17 Written by Ryan Brock


First Published 2/24/17 Written by Ryan Brock